ScenaLand: a simple methodology for developing land use and management scenarios
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract Scenarios serve science by testing the sensitivity of a system and/or society to adapt future. In this study, we present new land use scenario methodology called ScenaLand. This aims develop plausible and contrasting management (LUM) scenarios, useful explore how LUM (e.g. soil water conservation techniques) may affect ecosystem services under global change in wide range environments. ScenaLand is method for constructing narrative spatially explicit scenarios that are end-users impact modellers. innovative because it merges literature expert knowledge, its low data requirement makes easy be implemented context inter-site comparison, including projections. was developed tested on six different Mediterranean agroecological socioeconomic contexts during MASCC research project (Mediterranean agricultural change). The first highlights trends each study site emerging such as government laws, techniques through qualitative survey addressed local experts. Then, includes ranking driving factors, matrix about evolution, techniques. also framework narratives along with two priority axes (contextualized environmental protection vs. productivity study). project, four proposed: S1 (business-as-usual), S2 (market-oriented), S3 (environmental protection), S4 (sustainable). Land maps then built creation allocation rules based zoning. resulted robust apply 24 contrasted scenarios. These come not only but potentially used modellers other end-users. last part our discusses way can comparison between sites possibilities implement contexts.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['1573-1596', '1381-2386']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-022-10024-7